economy 11 June 2026 Daily Monitor (Uganda)

Uganda Poised for Double-Digit Growth as Oil Production Looms

Uganda's economy is projected to achieve its highest growth rate in decades, potentially reaching 10.2% in the 2026/27 fiscal year, fueled by the anticipated commencement of commercial oil production. Source: https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/national/uganda-eyes-historic-double-digit-growth-as-oil-production-set-to-begin-5492818

Uganda’s economic future looks exceptionally bright, with the government forecasting a historic surge in growth to 10.2% for the 2026/27 fiscal year. This remarkable acceleration, driven significantly by the imminent launch of commercial oil production, marks Uganda’s potential return to double-digit economic expansion for the first time since the 1990s.

Finance Minister Henry Musasizi highlighted that this robust growth is a testament to the government’s long-term strategy, which has focused on investments in security, infrastructure, and key productive sectors. Despite global economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, Uganda’s economic fundamentals are reported to be strong, with stable inflation, a steady exchange rate, and increasing investment.

Official figures indicate the economy grew by an estimated 6.4% in the 2025/26 fiscal year, with the total GDP expected to reach Shs250.4 trillion ($69.3 billion) by June 2026. Inflation has remained under control, averaging 3.8% in the past fiscal year, supported by effective fiscal and monetary policy coordination.

Investor confidence is visibly on the rise, with Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) reaching $3.2 billion in the year ending March 2026. Notably, Uganda’s small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have attracted significant interest, with Kampala-based startups drawing approximately $30 million in investment in 2025. Remittances from Ugandans abroad also saw a substantial increase, bolstering foreign exchange reserves to $6 billion.

The tourism sector has made a full recovery, with earnings in 2025 surpassing pre-pandemic levels. The export sector has also performed impressively, with earnings reaching $18.04 billion in the 12 months to March 2026, driven by commodities like gold and coffee.

Employment trends show a positive structural shift, with more Ugandans moving into higher-productivity sectors, and formal private-sector employment experiencing a dramatic increase of 245% over the past decade. Government revenue collections are also strengthening, underscoring a move towards greater fiscal self-reliance.

This positive outlook, set against the backdrop of oil production finally coming online, suggests a transformative period ahead for Uganda’s economy and the livelihoods of its citizens.