Economists Predict France to Win World Cup, Spain Runner-Up

Economists from around the globe have weighed in on the upcoming 48-team World Cup, with France emerging as the favored team to lift the trophy. According to a Reuters survey, Didier Deschamps’ squad secured 35% of the vote, positioning them to potentially win their third World Cup title. This prediction aligns with some betting markets and suggests a return of European dominance in international football.

Spain followed closely behind with 31% of the vote, indicating a strong European presence in the tournament’s latter stages. While statistical models played a role, a significant majority (73%) of respondents admitted that gut feeling heavily influenced their predictions, acknowledging football’s inherent unpredictability compared to economic forecasting.

Defending champions Argentina, currently topping the FIFA rankings, alongside Portugal and England, were also among the top five choices. “After the disappointment of the 2022 final, France looks well equipped to go one better this time,” commented Cathal Kennedy, a senior economist at RBC. He noted the team’s blend of experienced players nearing their peak and emerging talent, particularly mentioning Kylian Mbappe as a key factor.

Mbappe was also tipped to be the tournament’s standout player, receiving the most votes for both the Golden Ball and the Golden Boot. He faced stiff competition from England’s Harry Kane, who had a prolific season with Bayern Munich. Both players are seen as contenders to break Miroslav Klose’s all-time World Cup goal record.

On the flip side, five-time winners Brazil are expected to be a potential disappointment, according to the survey. Despite the appointment of Carlo Ancelotti as coach, nearly a third of the economists predicted Brazil would underperform. Norway, fueled by striker Erling Haaland, was identified as a potential surprise package, with 21% picking them as the underdog most likely to cause an upset.

The survey also identified potential breakout stars, with Spain’s 18-year-old Lamine Yamal receiving the most votes. In other categories, France’s Mike Maignan, Argentina’s Emiliano Martinez, and Spain’s Unai Simon were among the favorites for the Golden Glove. Off the field, the tournament faces challenges related to fan affordability, with concerns about high ticket prices, accommodation, and travel costs making it potentially the most expensive World Cup yet.