Strait of Hormuz Blockade Threatens Global Food Security, Uganda at Risk

The continued deadlock over the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is creating a significant risk to global food security, with Uganda potentially facing dire consequences.

Since the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran escalated in early 2026, pump prices have been volatile. However, a less visible but equally damaging impact has been the surge in fertilizer prices. Globally, fertilizer costs have risen by an estimated 80%, with a 50kg bag now exceeding Shs200,000 in Uganda. This price hike is attributed to both Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Ukrainian strikes on Russian fertilizer stocks.

While Ugandan farmers traditionally use fertilizer sparingly, there’s a growing reliance on it to prevent precipitous crop yield drops, which can be as high as 50% without nitrogen fertilizer. The timing of these supply disruptions has coincided with critical planting seasons, raising fears of reduced harvests.

Experts warn of a severe impact on food production. The annual inflation rate for “Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages” has already reached 2.8%, with “Food Crops and Related Items” at 0.6%. The upcoming second planting season also faces crippling fertilizer shortages.

Approximately 300,000 metric tonnes of fertilizer, valued at about $55 million, are imported into Uganda annually, with Russia and Gulf nations being key suppliers. A staggering 30% of the world’s fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the critical nature of this waterway.

Adding to the supply chain challenges, a new 2.5% tax on imported agrochemicals in Uganda is expected to further exacerbate the situation. Experts predict that without urgent action to restore traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, regions like Karamoja and Teso could face a hunger crisis, mirroring the devastating drought experienced between 2020 and 2023.

Source: Daily Monitor (Uganda)