Climate Change to Fuel Spread of Crop Pests and Diseases in Great Lakes Region, Study Warns

Farming in the Great Lakes region, which encompasses Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, faces considerable challenges. A combination of environmental shifts, social tensions, and resource conflicts contributes to low agricultural productivity and widespread food insecurity.

Recent research, employing machine learning, analyzed 27 common crop pathogens and pests affecting staples like bananas, cassava, potatoes, and sweet potatoes in Rwanda and Burundi. The study aimed to predict how these threats might evolve under a warming climate.

Findings indicate that warmer temperatures are expected to change the distribution patterns of these agricultural adversaries. As higher altitudes become more hospitable due to global warming, pests and diseases previously confined to lower elevations are likely to spread to new regions, threatening crops vital to the livelihoods of smallholder farmers.

Model predictions suggest that approximately 44% of the studied pathogens and pests could become more prevalent at higher altitudes. This necessitates adaptive strategies for farmers and agricultural programs to anticipate and manage these evolving threats. Conversely, about 17% of these organisms might decline at higher elevations if conditions become too extreme for them.

The study highlights the critical need for informed decision-making tools for farmers, policymakers, and agricultural organizations. Implementing climate-smart agriculture practices, enhancing crop management, and conducting regular pest and disease surveillance are crucial steps to building resilience and safeguarding food production in the face of climate change.

Source: theconversation.com