world 1 April 2026 Daily Monitor (Uganda)
US-Israel War on Iran Risks Empowering Tehran and Endangering Gulf States
A potential US-Israel conflict with Iran could backfire, strengthening Tehran's rulers instead of toppling them while exposing Gulf Arab nations to heightened threats and energy disruptions. Experts warn that ending the war without a deal would leave Iran dominant over key shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz. Source: https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/world/a-war-meant-to-break-iran-could-leave-tehran-stronger-and-gulf-exposed-5410720
A war aimed at dismantling Iran’s leadership might instead solidify their power. After weeks of US-Israeli strikes, Tehran’s rulers could emerge emboldened, having survived attacks and retaliated against Gulf states.
President Trump has indicated the conflict could wrap up soon, possibly without any agreement. This scenario alarms Gulf countries, who fear Iran gaining control over Middle East energy routes, including the vital Strait of Hormuz, without clear resolutions.
Analyst Mohammed Baharoon from Dubai’s B’huth Research Center highlighted the danger of halting hostilities without outcomes. Iran’s ongoing threats to the region, even with US bases present, underscore Gulf vulnerabilities to disrupted navigation and economic fallout.
The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei early in the war, replaced by his son Mojtaba, transformed the conflict. Experts like Fawaz Gerges argue this elevated Khamenei to martyr status, rallying Iran’s hardliners and radicalizing the nation rather than fracturing it.
Iran’s resilience stems from layered institutions and a history of enduring sanctions and the Iraq war. By targeting energy infrastructure and the Hormuz Strait, Tehran has spiked global oil prices, imposing economic pain on adversaries without needing air superiority.
Gulf states have stayed out to avoid a Sunni-Shiite clash. A premature US withdrawal could activate Iran’s global networks, posing risks far beyond the Middle East, as noted by terrorism expert Magnus Ranstorp.
This analysis is based on a report from Daily Monitor (Uganda).